Wrong Assumptions

      Leaders are required make decisions on the basis of correct information, not rumor, wish nor intelligence. According to Kiser, it is very dangerous to make important decisions on the basis of wrong assumptions. A number of fields such as politics and business depend on important decisions for their success. An instance that needs to be addressed on the basis of correct information is the nuclear-weapons program in North Korea. This program should be dismantled through thorough negotiations with the leaders in North Korea. The parties that are involved in the negotiations, such as the United States assume that the negotiations are not necessary. There are five wrong assumptions that Washington should address regarding the negotiations with North Korea over the issue of the Nuclear-weapons program. There are five wrong assumptions, but only two will be considered.  

      The United States consider North Korea as a weak participant. This is the first wrong assumption that Washington should address. According to, this assumption was based on North Korea’s economy, military strength, and international image. North Korea is less powerful than the United States in terms of economy and military strength, but in real sense North Korea may be ready to pursue brinkmanship because it is already deprived and therefore, has little to lose. Therefore, the United States is required to treat North Korea as an equally powerful participant and strengthen confederations with South Korea, China, Russia, and Japan to end its continuation with the nuclear-weapons program.

      Washington assumes that Pyongyang will go through nuclear crisis because of the anticipated regime collapse. The United States considers North Korea as forcing it to make concessions because of the anticipated Pyongyang’s regime collapse. However, with continued economic assistance from South Korea and China, North Korea can be able to accumulate more power to void Pyongyang’s regime from collapsing. Therefore, if Washington cannot speed up significant negotiations with Pyongyang, the nuclear-weapons program will not be dismantled. It is necessary for the validity of the assumptions to be tested before they are used to make decisions by conducting a quantitative research and a survey research. The gathered data can then be analyzed thoroughly to ensure that the most correct information is obtained which is necessary for making right decisions.   

Bernard L. Madoff US Marshals Service
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